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尚没有自我介绍。

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房价将跌?再读2005夏天上海楼市故事!!

2007-11-14 12:20

近期全国许多城市楼市由热转凉,各种论调热闹非凡。上海业界都还记得2005年夏天上海楼市的一次明显下调,其它城市的朋友不一定了解真实情况。对深圳、北京等几个楼市一直火了好几年、没有一次像样调整的城市来说,上海楼市的那次历史可作镜鉴。

 其实,上海楼市近几年的发展史我已在很多场合讲过很多次,连自己都有点烦了。因此,今天就把2005年8月写的一篇文章——也是我在《中国房地产报》上发表的第一篇文章(从那后就没停过,几乎每期都为她写,所以在此呼吁中国房地产报社颁我一个《最勤奋奖》,请美女葛云或帅胖王子鹏帮我申请),原原本本的附在下面,以俺那自由散漫的文风,希望网友能中看出点什么。

 

楼市别熄火

 

近日忽然发现,在我家小区的一溜沿街商铺中间,又有一家二手房中介店“玩失踪”,这好象是近两个月来的第三家了。上海楼市这次真的是“狼来了。”想当初,这些中介店如苍蝇般聚集在新建小区的周边,可见房地产的暴利是多么诱人,因为在房地产“生态链”中,二手房中介店也只是排在开发商、设计商、承建商、代理商、广告商之后,喝下游油水的“小字辈”。


中国人具有强烈的“恋地”情结,所以在古代,只要有点钱,都会想法买田置地,这是农耕文明浸染太久的缘故,家里若有“良田五百亩”,那可是牛气冲天的事。由地延伸到房,似乎天经地义,也就形成了房地产。对房子渴望,本是人类同需,可就现在社会而言,中国老百姓对房子的感情简直是图腾崇拜。

 

即使在欧洲,私房拥有率也只有50%左右,而在目前的中国已高达80%。由此反映出中西方在消费方面的重大差别。西方人比较注重及时享乐,如果没有足够的财力,就不愿以牺牲生活品质而负重买楼;而中国人,无论如何也要一定先搞套房子,多数还会深谋远虑到为儿子找媳妇增加筹码,因此会不惜预支几十年的收入,过去是央亲托友借款,现在则迅速适应了向银行贷款。

 

在货币化分房的政策刺激下,1999年以来的这拨大牛市,让无数人圆了住房梦,也圆了无数人的发财梦。尤其是上海楼市,温州炒房团兴风作浪,上海本地投资者盲目跟风,外地有钱人趋之若鹜,国外热钱滚滚而来。2002年圈内有微弱的声音认为楼市有泡沫;2003年大谈拐点即将出现,结果均价超过北京,一跃成为全国“老大”;2004年喊“涨”和喊“跌”的两派激烈论战,却成为涨幅最高的一年;2005年3月,市中心的高价楼盘排队难弄到手,越贵越抢手,售楼员个个像大爷。从3月开始,宏观调控发狠,“国八条”等猛药砸向房地产业。如一场喜剧进行到最高潮,却突然断了台柱,台上“食客”惶作一团,台下看客“幸灾乐祸”。


从3月底到6月,大家都在引颈观望,或者说买卖两方在博弈。开发商还沉浸在回忆过去“大鱼大肉”的日子,怎愿割肉降价;想要买房的自住客则“久旱逢甘霖”,恨不能那帮黑心肠的开发商被淋成“落汤鸡”,看跌的心理预期使他们捂紧了钱袋;而房子在握的投资客,有些自恃已赚了不少,降价逃市,有些不忍“跳楼”的,只能做“打持久战”的准备,由售转租。

 

据统计,整个6月份,市区有一半的楼盘业绩为“鸭蛋”,越高档越难卖,能不退已谢天谢地,售楼员那早已僵硬的笑肌,重又向客户“怒放”。进入7月份,市场形势渐明朗,整体走弱不可避免。撑不住的中小开发商首先开始“跳水”,直接降价百分之二十已不稀罕,而那些大牌开发商中除了小部分“死要面子活受罪”地还在坚守价格,大部分也开始进行打折、特惠、购房送大礼。而且,宏观政策打压之外,今年上海市政府推出的“两个1000万工程”(1000万平方米配套商品房,1000万平方米中低价房),也将对整个市场格局产生重大影响,凭空增加这么多的房源,必然导致明显的供大于求。

 

楼价下调,老百姓当然拍手相庆,还嫌跌得不够狠。可房地产已成为国家尤其是上海的支柱产业,一业衍生多业,一荣俱荣,一损俱损,它的重挫必然导致整个GDP、就业率、收入水平、消费水平的多米诺骨牌效应(在某种程度上可以这样说)。因此,政府的宏观调控目的是不希望楼市“大起大落”,现在为楼市“清火”,就是为了避免楼市未来的“熄火”。

 

后来的市场发展正如笔者2005年所希冀的那样:在“新老国八条”的强大威力下,2005年夏季上海确实发生一场降价运动——事实证明那时正是逢低入市的绝佳机会!因为第四季度楼市就开始企稳,2006年稳中有升,2007年重新大涨。因此,在此再重复一遍俺的观点:中期全国楼市大拐点难现,部分城市阶段性拐点完全有可能!分析一下各位自己所在城市的楼市进化史,是买是等,各作打算吧。

 

上海再爆天价地:疯了,呆了,怕了

大盘开发何时寿终正寝

中国的房地产市场周期是几年?

水煮房价之“六方会谈”

紧盯成交量,预知房价走向!

年底房地产政策走势研判

多数人并不知晓的上海“倾城之美”

Recently suddenly found that, in my home district in the middle of a wandering street shops, the intermediary has a second-hand shop "play disappearances", which appears to be the last two months of the third. Shanghai property market this really is "the wolf is coming." At first, as these intermediary shop like flies gathered in the area surrounding the new, visible real estate profiteering how tempting, because in the real estate "ecological chain", the secondary the shop is only an intermediary ranked developers, designers, contractors, agents, advertisers, the drinking water downstream,


Chinese people have a strong sense of "Love" complex, in ancient times, as long as a bit of money will buy Tian home thinking, this is the farming civilization disseminated too long because home if "500 acres of good land", but that the bolstered things. By expanding to the Housing, it seems only right and proper, it formed a real estate. Eager to house, with the human need, may now society, the Chinese people's feelings simply house totem worship.

 

Even in Europe,ownership in only about 50 percent, while in the present China has reached 80 percent. This reflects consumption in the West in a major difference. Westerners focus on relatively timely pleasures, if there are not enough financial resources, not willing to sacrifice their quality of life while carrying home buyers, and the Chinese people, in any case must first engage in a certain sub-suites, the majority will prudence to the sonincrease bargaining chip, advances will not hesitate decades of income, the past is pro-child care center Friends of the borrower, but now it has to adjust rapidly to bank loans.

 

In the currency of the housing distribution policy to stimulate, 1999 has been allocated for this bull market, many people have turned to the housing dream, but also fulfilled the dream of so many people's fortune. Shanghai in particular the property market, WenzhouMission stir up trouble and Shanghai local investors blindly follow suit, the field wealthy enthusiasm, billowing hot money from abroad. In 2002 insiders believe that the voice of a weak property market is a bubble; 2003 talked about the upcoming inflection point, the average results over Beijing, it became the "Boss"; 2004 chanting "up" and crying "or" factions intense polemics, or has become the highest one year in March 2005, the center of the queue difficult to get expensive real estate in hand, the more expensive the more sought after, the sales Rapporteur everyone like Granddad. From March, the macro-control, "the eight" strong medicine pound on the real estate industry. Like a comedy for the climax, but suddenly cut off the main stage "patrons" plaguing amid Onlooker "schadenfreude."


From the end of March to June, we are eagerly wait-and-see, or the sale of the two sides in the game. Developers still immersed in memories of the past days, how wouldprices; want is a house guest since Yoshinori and the like black heart developer was leaching into " bearish psychological expectations so that theya purse, and recognition for the investment house off, some thinking he has earned a lot, price cuts flee the city, some of intolerance "jumped down" and can only be "fighting a protracted battle," preparations, the sale sublease.

 

According to statistics, in the June, the urban half of the real estate performance as "duck", and the more high-grade more difficult to sell, to no rebate has thankfully, the sales Rapporteur which has already been the laughter muscle stiffness, weight also clients "full bloom." Entering July, the market situation gradually uncertain, the overall weakness inevitable. Small and medium-sized developers can not hold out first started "diving", 20% price reduction has been directly not scarce, and those big-name developers, in addition to a small number of still stick to the price, most also began playing pack, ex-gratia, buy houses send gift. Moreover, the macroeconomic policies suppressed, the Shanghai municipal government has introduced this year, the "two 10 million project," (10 million square meters matching house 10 million square meters in, but also the whole market will have a significant impact on patterns, abstract increase so manywill inevitably lead to significant oversupply.

 

Property prices downward, of course, the people clapped and celebrated,fall not. Real estate has become a country can be especially Shanghai's pillar industries, a multi-industry derivatives industry, with all, harmed, it will inevitably lead down the entire GDP, employment rate, income level, the level of consumption domino effect (It can be said that to some extent). Therefore, the government's macro-control hope that the property market is not "big ups and downs", as the property market is now "- fire" is the future of the property market in order to avoid "flameout."

 

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